This page is a forecast model — not a record of achieved harvests or revenue.

Adelphi’s crop model estimates how short-, medium-, long-cycle, and continuous production could perform under a defined set of assumptions. It is useful for:

planting and production planning;
comparing crop timelines;
estimating gross-revenue scenarios;
testing loss and price assumptions;
planning data collection;
comparing forecasts with actual harvest records over time.

It is not a live farm ledger, profit-and-loss statement, guaranteed return, or record of realized revenue.

Compare with published farm records

Use the Kokonut Hub for current published harvest, MRV, milestone, and farm records.

Understand the evidence standard

See why a forecast remains a model until actual farm records are collected, reviewed, and published.

Forecast ≠ actual. Gross revenue ≠ profit. This model does not include the full cost structure for labor, water, inputs, packaging, transport, certification, maintenance, taxes, losses after harvest, or other operating expenses.

How to read this model

The forecast combines crops that operate on different timelines. That means the headline annual total is best understood as a steady-state planning snapshot, not a guaranteed single-calendar-year result.

Stream	Forecast maturity
Lettuce	Short-cycle annualized model
Passion fruit	Medium-cycle annual production assumption after establishment
Coconut	Long-cycle annual production assumption at productive maturity
Poultry eggs	Continuous production estimate; revenue excluded because the pricing model is incomplete

Coconut revenue should not be added to an early-year cash-flow expectation before the trees reach productive maturity. Likewise, passion-fruit and poultry performance should be reconciled against establishment and production records rather than assumed from the model.

Current documented assumptions

These are the assumptions currently encoded in the Adelphi forecast documentation.

Variable	Current model assumption	Evidence status
General crop-loss rate	15%	Planning assumption
Lettuce planting density	12 plants/m²	Planning assumption
Lettuce bed area	25 m²	Planning assumption
Lettuce beds per plot	19	Planning assumption
Lettuce plots	10	Planning assumption
Lettuce harvests/year	5	Annual planning assumption
Lettuce baseline price	$0.55/unit	Planning price
Lettuce upside price	$0.63/unit	Scenario price
Passion-fruit plots	8	Planning layout
Passion-fruit plants	560	Planning count
Passion-fruit gross yield	100 fruits/plant/year	Planning assumption
Passion-fruit pack size	13 fruits/net	Planning assumption
Passion-fruit price	$3.01/net	Planning price
Coconut trees	96	Planning/documented count used by model
Coconut gross yield	75 coconuts/tree/year at maturity	Planning assumption
Coconut price	$0.79/unit	Planning price
Poultry	110 hens	Documented state
Poultry output	~100 eggs/day	Planning estimate
Public-goods allocation	10% of gross farm revenue in the current farm model	Documentation assumption; see inconsistency note below

The model should become less assumption-heavy over time. Every harvest, sale, loss, and operating record can replace a planning value with a farm-specific actual.

Documentation inconsistency: public-goods allocation

The repository currently contains two conflicting Adelphi allocation models.

Farm / Framework documentation

The current:

Common Data Schema;
8 Forms of Capital page;
Adelphi SDG page;
Adelphi forecast page

model 10% of gross farm revenue for public goods once revenue is realized.

Regenerative Finance Playbook

Some ReFi Playbook pages describe a different Adelphi-specific split:

40% to the Hernández family as farm operators;
40% to a public-goods fund;
20% to Kokonut Network.

These two models are not equivalent. Until the repository is reconciled against the approved economic arrangement, this page uses 10% only as the current farm-model assumption. It should not be presented as a legally binding, governance-approved, or already-realized distribution.

The strongest future source of truth should be the approved farm economic agreement or governance record, with the documentation updated to match it.

Forecast summary

Crop / product	Cycle	Scale	Modeled annual production	Modeled gross revenue
Lettuce	Short cycle · 5 harvests/year	10 plots	48,450 units/harvest · 242,250 units/year	$133,237.50
Passion fruit	Medium cycle	8 plots · 560 plants	47,600 fruits · 3,661 complete nets + 7 loose fruits	$11,019.61 from complete nets
Coconut	Long cycle · productive maturity	96 trees	6,144 coconuts/year	$4,853.76
Poultry eggs	Continuous	110 hens	~36,500 eggs/year estimate	Not modeled
Combined crop model	Mixed maturity	Eggs excluded	—	$149,110.87/year

The $149,110.87 figure is a combined gross-revenue planning snapshot using the assumptions above. It is not net income, EBITDA, distributable cash, or a guaranteed annual result.

Core calculation logic

The crop model starts from a simple production relationship:

Gross Production
= Planting Density
× Planting Area
× Number of Production Units

Modeled Saleable Production
= Gross Production
× (1 − Loss Rate)

Modeled Gross Revenue
= Saleable Production
× Planning Price

For packaging-based crops such as passion fruit, an additional packaging step is required.

Complete Sale Units
= floor(Saleable Individual Units ÷ Units per Package)

Modeled Gross Revenue
= Complete Sale Units × Price per Package

The 15% loss rate is a model-wide planning assumption. It should eventually be replaced by crop- and season-specific actual loss rates.

Short cycle — lettuce

Lettuce is the largest modeled gross-revenue stream in the current forecast.

Current variables

Planting density:           12 lettuces/m²
Bed area:                   25 m²
Beds per plot:              19
Plots:                      10
Loss rate:                  15%
Production multiplier:      0.85
Modeled harvests per year:  5
Baseline planning price:    \$0.55/unit
Upside scenario price:      \$0.63/unit

Production calculation

Step	Calculation	Result
Plants per bed	`12 × 25`	300
Plants per plot	`300 × 19`	5,700
Gross plants across 10 plots	`5,700 × 10`	57,000
Modeled saleable units	`57,000 × 0.85`	48,450/harvest
Annual modeled units	`48,450 × 5`	242,250/year

Revenue calculation

Scenario	Calculation	Modeled gross revenue
Baseline per harvest	`48,450 × \$0.55`	$26,647.50
Upside per harvest	`48,450 × \$0.63`	$30,523.50
Baseline annualized	`242,250 × \$0.55`	$133,237.50
Upside annualized	`242,250 × \$0.63`	$152,617.50

What is still an assumption

The repository currently describes:

30–45 days for loose-leaf lettuce;
60–75 days for head lettuce;
5 modeled harvests per year.

Those timing values belong to the current planning model and should be replaced or refined with Adelphi-specific crop-cycle actuals as records accumulate.

What actuals should replace

planted units;
germination / establishment loss;
field loss;
harvest quantity;
quality grade;
rejected units;
donated or consumed units;
sold units;
sale price;
buyer/channel;
harvest date;
days from planting to harvest.

Lettuce sensitivity

The baseline forecast is highly sensitive to both losses and price.

Loss-rate sensitivity at $0.55/unit

Loss rate	Units/harvest	Annual units at 5 harvests	Modeled gross revenue
10%	51,300	256,500	$141,075.00
15% baseline	48,450	242,250	$133,237.50
20%	45,600	228,000	$125,400.00
25%	42,750	213,750	$117,562.50

Price sensitivity at the 15% loss baseline

Price/unit	Modeled annual gross revenue
$0.45	$109,012.50
$0.55 baseline	$133,237.50
$0.63 upside	$152,617.50

These sensitivity tables are derived directly from the existing Adelphi model assumptions. They are scenarios, not new price or yield forecasts.

Medium cycle — passion fruit

Current variables

Area per plot:                629 m²
Spacing:                      3 m × 3 m
Plants per plot:              70
Plots:                        8
Total plants:                 560
Gross yield assumption:       100 fruits/plant/year
Loss rate:                    15%
Modeled net yield:            85 fruits/plant/year
Package size:                 13 fruits/net
Planning price:               \$3.01/net

Production calculation

Step	Calculation	Result
Modeled saleable fruit	`85 × 560`	47,600 fruits
Complete 13-fruit nets	`floor(47,600 ÷ 13)`	3,661 nets
Loose remainder	`47,600 − (3,661 × 13)`	7 fruits
Revenue from complete nets	`3,661 × \$3.01`	$11,019.61

The existing forecast monetizes only complete nets. It does not assign revenue to the seven-fruit remainder, nor does it model packaging cost, damaged fruit, direct-sale pricing, or different buyer channels.

Actuals needed

surviving vines;
establishment date;
fruit count per vine;
harvest periods;
grade/rejection rate;
package size;
packaging loss;
realized sale price;
buyer/channel;
unsold or donated fruit.

Long cycle — coconut

Coconut is the long-duration crop in the current planning model.

Current variables

Trees:                        96
Gross mature-yield assumption:75 coconuts/tree/year
Loss rate:                    15%
Modeled net yield:            64 coconuts/tree/year
Planning price:               \$0.79/coconut
Modeled first-harvest window: 3–5 years after planting

Production calculation

Step	Calculation	Result
Modeled annual units at maturity	`64 × 96`	6,144 coconuts
Modeled gross revenue	`6,144 × \$0.79`	$4,853.76/year

This is a maturity-stage annual model. It should not be treated as year-one or near-term revenue. The 3–5 year first-harvest window and 75-coconut gross-yield assumption are current planning assumptions in the repository and should be reconciled against actual Adelphi tree records over time.

Potential derivative products—oil, milk, water, husk, fiber, or timber—are not included in the baseline revenue total. If those become real commercial streams, they should have separate:

processing assumptions;
yield conversions;
costs;
prices;
market evidence;
actual sales records.

Continuous production — poultry

Adelphi documents 110 free-range laying hens. The current model estimates:

Estimated daily eggs:   ~100
Estimated annual eggs:  ~36,500
Revenue in this model:   Not included

The output figure remains a planning estimate until reconciled against poultry production records. A complete poultry revenue model would need:

laying rate by period;
flock size changes;
mortality;
feed and forage inputs;
egg loss/breakage;
eggs consumed or donated;
eggs sold;
packaging;
sale price;
buyer/channel;
poultry operating costs.

Read the physical poultry and nutrient system →

Combined gross-revenue model

Using the current crop assumptions:

Lettuce:        \$133,237.50
Passion fruit:   \$11,019.61
Coconut:          \$4,853.76
────────────────────────────
Crop total:     \$149,110.87

Poultry:        excluded from revenue total

This number should be described as modeled gross crop revenue. It should not be called:

net revenue;
profit;
cash available for distribution;
household income;
DAO income;
guaranteed annual revenue.

Those require additional accounting data.

Public-goods scenario under the 10% farm assumption

If the current 10% gross-revenue allocation assumption is applied to the full modeled crop total:

Modeled gross crop revenue:      \$149,110.87
10% public-goods scenario:        \$14,911.09
Gross revenue remaining:         \$134,199.78
                                 before operating costs,
                                 taxes, reserves, debt,
                                 distributions, or other expenses

Possible public-good uses documented elsewhere in the farm model include:

workshops;
education;
nursery operations;
seedling distribution;
community programming.

$134,199.78 is not “net operating revenue.” It is only the modeled gross crop revenue remaining after subtracting the 10% scenario allocation. No cost model has been applied.

And because the repository contains the separate 40/40/20 ReFi Playbook model described earlier, no allocation should be presented as final until the authoritative economic arrangement is reconciled.

Forecast → actual → revised forecast

The model should behave as a learning system. For each cycle, the farm should be able to calculate:

Production Variance
= Actual Production − Forecast Production

Price Variance
= Actual Price − Forecast Price

Gross Revenue Variance
= Actual Gross Revenue − Forecast Gross Revenue

Actual Loss Rate
= 1 − (Actual Saleable Production ÷ Gross Planted / Expected Production Basis)

The exact denominator for loss rate should be defined consistently by crop so different periods remain comparable.

Minimum actuals dataset

To make this forecast genuinely operational, each harvest should preserve enough information to answer:

Field	Why it matters
Farm / plot	Connects outcome to place
Crop / variety	Prevents unlike crops from being aggregated
Planting date	Establishes cycle timing
Harvest date	Measures actual days to harvest
Planted quantity / area	Provides forecast denominator
Harvested quantity	Core production actual
Saleable quantity	Separates production from marketable output
Loss / rejection quantity	Produces actual loss rate
Unit / package definition	Prevents unit ambiguity
Realized selling price	Replaces planning price
Buyer / channel	Explains price differences
Gross sales	Reconciles physical and financial records
Evidence / reviewer	Supports MRV and public reporting

Risk and uncertainty register

Variable	Current assumption	Why it can change
Crop loss	15% baseline	Weather, pests, disease, establishment, handling, irrigation, labor
Lettuce cycles	5/year	Variety, weather, bed turnaround, labor, soil management
Market price	Fixed planning prices	Season, quality, buyer, channel, certification, supply/demand
Passion-fruit yield	100 gross fruits/plant/year	Establishment, disease, vine health, season
Coconut yield	75 gross units/tree/year at maturity	Tree age, health, climate, management
Poultry output	~100 eggs/day	Flock age, nutrition, health, season, mortality
Certification	In progress	Review timeline and compliance requirements
Market access	Target channels documented	Buyer relationships and commercial agreements are not guaranteed
Operating costs	Not modeled here	Labor, water, transport, packaging, maintenance, certification and more
Public-goods allocation	10% farm-model assumption	Conflicts with 40/40/20 ReFi Playbook documentation and needs reconciliation

What this forecast can support today

Production planning

The model defines the crop counts, cycle assumptions, loss rate, and expected output used for planning.

Scenario analysis

Assumptions can be changed to understand how loss, price, harvest frequency, and maturity affect modeled outcomes.

MRV design

The forecast identifies which actual records must be collected to test each assumption.

Variance learning

Forecast-vs-actual comparison can make future farm planning increasingly farm-specific.

What it does not support yet

guaranteed annual revenue;
farm profitability;
operator income;
distributable DAO revenue;
proven public-goods funding;
realized household economic impact;
verified food-security impact;
mature coconut revenue before maturity;
poultry revenue without a pricing and sales model.

Sources of truth by question

Question	Best source
What does the current model assume?	This forecast page
What is physically installed or operating?	Crops, Biodiversity & Infrastructure
What has actually been recorded?	Kokonut Hub
How should records become evidence?	MRV methodology
How are farm-level claims summarized?	Adelphi Overview
How do forecasts connect to SDGs?	Sustainable Development Goals

Continue through Adelphi

Compare with live farm data

Use published farm records to replace planning assumptions with actual performance where available.

Crops, Biodiversity & Infrastructure

See the physical systems behind the production assumptions.

MRV — Evidence Standard

Understand how harvest and sales records should move from observations into reviewed evidence.

Sustainable Development Goals

See which economic and food-production SDG claims remain forecasts and which require actual records.

Adelphi Overview

Return to the canonical farm overview and documented state.

Open Collaboration

Help improve forecast assumptions, crop economics, record quality, variance analysis, or farm-data tooling.

A good forecast is not one that stays correct forever. It is one that becomes more accurate because reality is allowed to update it.

​This page is a forecast model — not a record of achieved harvests or revenue.

Compare with published farm records

Understand the evidence standard

​How to read this model

​Current documented assumptions

​Documentation inconsistency: public-goods allocation

​Farm / Framework documentation

​Regenerative Finance Playbook

​Forecast summary

​Core calculation logic

​Short cycle — lettuce

​Current variables

​Production calculation

​Revenue calculation

​What is still an assumption

​What actuals should replace

​Lettuce sensitivity

​Loss-rate sensitivity at $0.55/unit

​Price sensitivity at the 15% loss baseline

​Medium cycle — passion fruit

​Current variables

​Production calculation

​Actuals needed

​Long cycle — coconut

​Current variables

​Production calculation

​Continuous production — poultry

​Combined gross-revenue model

​Public-goods scenario under the 10% farm assumption

​Forecast → actual → revised forecast

​Minimum actuals dataset

​Risk and uncertainty register

​What this forecast can support today

Production planning

Scenario analysis

MRV design

Variance learning

​What it does not support yet

​Sources of truth by question

​Continue through Adelphi

Compare with live farm data

Crops, Biodiversity & Infrastructure

MRV — Evidence Standard

Sustainable Development Goals

Adelphi Overview

Open Collaboration

This page is a forecast model — not a record of achieved harvests or revenue.

How to read this model

Current documented assumptions

Documentation inconsistency: public-goods allocation

Farm / Framework documentation

Regenerative Finance Playbook

Forecast summary

Core calculation logic

Short cycle — lettuce

Current variables

Production calculation

Revenue calculation

What is still an assumption

What actuals should replace

Lettuce sensitivity

Loss-rate sensitivity at $0.55/unit

Price sensitivity at the 15% loss baseline

Medium cycle — passion fruit

Current variables

Production calculation

Actuals needed

Long cycle — coconut

Current variables

Production calculation

Continuous production — poultry

Combined gross-revenue model

Public-goods scenario under the 10% farm assumption

Forecast → actual → revised forecast

Minimum actuals dataset

Risk and uncertainty register

What this forecast can support today

What it does not support yet

Sources of truth by question

Continue through Adelphi